Introduction
Day nine of (COP30) was marked by intense diplomatic activity as the Brazilian Presidency released new draft texts for what is known as the "Belém Political Package." Efforts were focused on accelerating the pace of negotiations to reach consensus on several pivotal issues before the end of the week. The day was characterized by a shift from technical negotiations to ministerial consultations, with significant pressure from the Presidency to conclude a substantial portion of the work by mid-week, reflecting a sense of urgency in confronting global climate challenges.
1. Key Messages from the Opening Plenary and Presidential Consultations
In the "Mutirão Mobilization for the Belém Package" session, the COP Presidency emphasized its plan to finalize work on the "Mutirão Decision" (a Portuguese term meaning a collective, organized effort to achieve a common goal) and its interrelated topics by Wednesday. The Presidency clarified that the "Belém Political Package" aims to address urgent and interconnected issues in an integrated manner, while other issues will be handled in a separate package of decisions scheduled for adoption on Friday. Given the urgency of the negotiations, the Bureau of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed to extend the official negotiating hours for all remaining days of the conference until midnight.
2. High-Level Assessment of Key Thematic Areas
2.1 Adaptation
Disagreements persist over the adoption of indicators to measure progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) {a collective commitment under Article 7.1 of the Paris Agreement to "enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change"}. Countries such as the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, the Independent Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC), and the Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group support adopting the indicators in Belém. In contrast, the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) resists this, favoring a two-year policy alignment process with the aim of adopting the list of indicators at COP32. Regarding adaptation finance, all developing country groups supported the option of at least tripling adaptation finance from 2025 levels, which was opposed by all developed countries.
2.2 Mitigation
As part of the collective response to the first Global Stocktake (GST), three options were put forward to address the ambition gap in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) {the climate action plans submitted by countries every five years to outline how they will contribute to achieving the Paris Agreement's goals}. No single option on its own meets the level of ambition required to close the gap towards the 1.5°C target, but they are not mutually exclusive and can be built upon. Progress on this track remains contingent on clear progress on finance, which is the cornerstone for enabling ambitious climate action.
2.3 Finance
The draft "Mutirão" decision still falls short of addressing the predictability and provision of finance, and the rapid implementation of the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG). Furthermore, the failure to meet the Adaptation Fund's annual mobilization target of USD 300 million for the second consecutive year increases the importance of the Fund's governance and its transition to serve the Paris Agreement. This gap is a major concern for developing countries that rely on this funding to address the impacts of climate change.
2.4 Loss and Damage
Despite disappointment in many areas, there are some bright spots. The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) has been linked to the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), creating an important connection between them. However, there is concern about the delay in the long-term resource mobilization strategy for the Fund, which could lead to its depletion. In a positive development, an agreement was reached to remove the qualifier that restricted funding requests to "developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change," thereby broadening access to the Fund.
2.5 Just Transition
The new texts for the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) anchor robust principles for a just transition. If paired with ambitious institutional arrangements, they could help coordinate and support implementation on the ground. The main sticking points remain unilateral trade measures (such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism - CBAM) and the institutional arrangements needed to operationalize the program.
3. Institutional Arrangements
The institutional arrangements for the just transition remain a key point of contention, with discussions revolving around whether to establish a dedicated mechanism, a work plan, or a policy toolkit. Ministerial pairs are leading consultations on these arrangements, while the Presidency is conducting shuttle diplomacy on the paragraphs related to the energy transition and unilateral trade measures, in an attempt to find common ground among the divergent positions of the Parties.
4. Notes from the Negotiation Corridors and Informal Sessions
A sense of intense activity and confusion prevailed in the conference corridors, with meetings appearing and disappearing from the official schedule. The work was divided between technical negotiation tracks led by facilitators and political tracks led by the Presidency and ministers, which confused many participants. Despite strenuous efforts, agreement remained elusive on key issues like the Global Goal on Adaptation. However, there was cautious optimism that the accelerated negotiations might lead to compromises in the coming hours.
5. The Role of Civil Society
Civil society played a prominent role in lobbying for specific issues. UN Special Rapporteurs criticized the heightened security measures at the conference, stating they created a "chilling effect" on participants, especially environmental human rights defenders and Indigenous Peoples. Civil society organizations, led by the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA), also mobilized support for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, with over 80 countries now backing this direction, demonstrating the growing influence of non-governmental voices in shaping the negotiation process.
Conclusion:
Day nine of COP30 shows a race against time to reach important political decisions within the "Belém Package." While some progress has been made in linking issues together, deep divisions remain, especially between the Global North and South, on issues of finance, ambition, and justice, placing immense pressure on the negotiations in the remaining days.
This report was prepared by the YLEF team.
